Water AlliesTier 2
at NorCal Regionals 2024
decks
2
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
2-9-1
overall winrate
20.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.4%
avg ELO -5.0 per match
expected value
39.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1185
· median 1185
· range 1092–1278
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1070
Q1 1193
Q3 1417
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 23.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 47.6% | -1.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
